Missed Opprtunity
Based on a Toronto Star op Ed July 22th
NATO’s Missing Weapon Was Energy
The Ankara summit came and went with the usual arguments about burden-sharing and leadership. But a more consequential issue was largely sidelined: energy.
Ukraine has exposed a real vulnerability in Russia’s war economy. Strikes on refining capacity and existing sanctions have created pressure—but not enough. Russia is still earning the revenue it needs to sustain the war.
What was missing in Ankara was urgency—especially from the United States. With the notable exception of the late Senator Lindsey Graham, there has been little sustained American push to treat energy as a central front in weakening Russia.
NATO could have acted: tighter enforcement on sanctions evasion, a faster phase-out of Russian LNG, and coordinated efforts to block Russia’s ability to rebuild its refining sector. Canada was well positioned to press this case.
Instead, the alliance settled for incrementalism. Unity was preserved, but a key opportunity to more seriously constrain Russia’s war effort was left on the table.
Regrettably, I have to say that I disagree, respectfully, with Mr Axworthy in this assessment of NATO and the response to Russia. The problem NATO is having, fundamentally, is that it has lost and otherwise does not have the moral high ground. NATO has shown itself to have acted outside of UN rules, crossing the line from defence to aggression. In addition, NATO seems to be frantic, if not aggressive, probably both, in its search for the North Atlantic in the South China Sea. But here is the real problem. NATO leadership knows that it has over decades provoked Russia to the point of torment. The USA Democrats started it but successive US administrations carried on in lockstep, including interfering in Ukrainian elections and participating in the Maidan massacre leading to the overthrow of a duly elected government in Ukraine. Life is complicated. Diplomacy is the only hope, not yet more warmongering by Europe toward Russia. And the irony or ironies has to be that today’s warmongering is led by none other than Germany. And where is democracy - it seems that the majority of Germans do not support this warmongering.
I usually agree with Mr Axworthy but this time I can’t. I think Europe and NATO are moving towards war with Russia, and not just the proxy war through Ukraine. They choose to overlook their own actions in moving NATO’s borders to Russia’s borders, and then reframe Russian response as massively expansionist.